주택시장은 봄…재개발은 한겨울 왜?
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27일 낮 서울 용산구 한남동 한남5거리 인근의 한 부동산중개업소. 한남뉴타운의 재개발 지분(낡은 단독ㆍ다세대주택)이 거래되는지 묻자 중개업소 사장은 손사래를 쳤다.
서울시부동산정보광장에 따르면 한남뉴타운이 있는 한남동에선 이달 들어 단독ㆍ다세대주택이 10여 가구 거래되는 데 그쳤다. 주택 경기가 살아나고 있다지만 오히려 지난해 12월(21가구)보다 거래량이 준 것이다.
그만큼 재개발 지분에 투자하련 사람이 줄었다는 얘기다. 서울 노원구 중계동 을지공인 서재필 사장은 “주택시장 분위기가 좋아지고 있지만 노원구 일대에서 재개발 구역에 관심을 갖는 사람은 없다”고 말했다.
서울 강남권 재건축아파트를 시작으로 주택시장에 온기가 돌고 있는 것과 달리 서울ㆍ수도권 주요 재개발 시장은 여전히 한겨울이다. 사업 속도가 빠른 일부 뉴타운을 제외하고는 시장 분위기가 지난해와 별반 다르지 않다. 정부도 재개발에 대해서는 사실상 손을 놓고 있다. 지난 19일 국토교통부의 대통령 업무보고에서 초과이익환수제 등 재건축 관련 규제 완화가 대거 포함됐지만 재개발 사업 정상화 방안은 없었다.
전문가들 “규제 완화로 숨통 틔워줘야”
뉴타운 출구전략 시행 2년이 넘었지만 구역별로 수십억원에 이르는 매몰비용(사업 진행을 위해 쓴 돈) 문제도 해결된 게 없다. 정부와 시공사가 공동 부담하는 쪽으로 가닥을 잡아가고 있지만 실효성은 약하다는 평가다. 사업을 하고 싶어도 사업성이 나빠져 못하고, 취소하려 해도 매몰비용에 발목이 잡힌 꼴이다. 서울시가 26일 대책을 내놨지만 침체한 시장엔 도움이 안된다는 반응이 많다.
재개발ㆍ재건축은 주변 집값이 오르지 않으면 사업 자체가 어려운 구조다. 2008년 세계 금융위기 이후 주요 재개발ㆍ재건축 사업이 멈춰 선 것도 그래서다. 하지만 최근 회복세를 보이는 재건축 시장과 달리 재개발 시장이 침체에서 벗어나지 못하는 것은 지역적 차이 때문이다.
재개발 구역은 특성상 구도심에 몰려 있다. 서울 강북 지역과 성남시 수정구 등지가 대표적이다. 이들 지역은 교통ㆍ교육 등 기반시설이 상대적으로 낙후돼 주거 선호도가 떨어지는 편이다. 정부와 서울시의 재개발 정책 기조 변화도 시장 활성화에 악영향을 미치고 있다는 지적이다.
정부와 서울시는 재개발의 경우 종전처럼 전면 철거 방식 대신 기반시설 정비, 공동체 활성화 등에 초첨을 맞출 계획이다. 김태오 국토부 주택정비과장은 “투기와 철거민 양산, 난개발 등의 폐해를 낳았던 점을 감안해 과거와 같은 전면 철거 방식은 지양해 나갈 것”이라고 말했다.
서울시가 26일 1조원을 들여 재개발 사업지의 주거환경 개선을 지원하겠다고 나선 것도 같은 맥락이다. 이남수 신한PB PB팀장은 “재개발에 대한 인식이 과거와 달리 주거환경 개선 쪽으로 바뀌면서 지분 투자 심리도 위축되고 있다”고 분석했다.
출구전략으로 사업 반대 주민들의 목소리가 커져 사업 진행이 더딘 것도 한 원인으로 꼽힌다. 성북구 장위동의 한 중개업소 사장은 “주변 재개발 구역 상당수에 사업 반대 주민이 적지 않다”며 “이로 인해 언제 사업이 취소될 지 알 수 없는 상황”이라고 전했다. 서울시에 따르면 지난 2년 간 606개의 재개발 구역 중 24%인 148개 구역이 사업을 접었다.
문제는 재개발 사업이 취소ㆍ지연되면서 구도심의 슬럼화가 가속화될 수 있고, 주택공급도 줄 수 있다는 점이다. 주택산업연구원은 재개발 사업이 지금과 같은 추세로 취소ㆍ지연되면 서울 주택 공급량이 올해부터 매년 20~30%씩 줄 것으로 추산했다. 주택산업연구원 김태섭 연구위원은 “도심에선 재개발과 재건축이 유일한 주택공급 수단"이라며 "사업이 초기 단계인 곳은 주민 의견을 물어 취소한다고 해도 사업이 상당부분 진척된 재개발 사업장은 숨통을 틔워져야 한다”고 주장했다.
전문가들은 재개발조합이 부담해야하는 일부 도로 건설비용 등 기반시설부담금을 완화하는 등의 규제 완화를 촉구했다. 심교언 건국대 부동산학과 교수는 “재건축 사업과의 형평성 차원에서도 재개발 시장에 대한 지원이 이뤄져야 한다”며 “매몰비용 문제 역시 자치단체에 넘기지 말고 정부가 적극 개입해야 한다”고 주문했다.
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