"부동산 시장 회복 기대감 상승
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작성자 짱알이 작성일14-02-14 09:43 조회24,366회 댓글123건관련링크
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주택산업연구원은 한국주택협회·대한주택건설협회 회원사를 대상으로 주택경기실사지수(HBSI)를 조사한 결과 서울, 수도권, 지방의 주택사업환경지수 전망치가 지난해 12월 이후 3개월 연속 상승하며 조사 이래 최고치를 기록했다고 12일 밝혔다.
주택사업환경지수 2월 전망치는 서울이 148.9(31.3포인트↑), 수도권 123.8(19.0포인트↑), 지방 110.3(5.1포인트↑)으로 집계됐다.
HBSI는 기준값 100을 초과하면 향후 경기가 좋아질 것이라고 응답한 업체가 많다는 뜻이고, 100 미만이면 나빠질 것이라고 응답한 업체가 많다는 것을 의미한다.
주택사업환경지수의 지난 1월 실적치 역시 서울 118.2(6.0포인트↑), 수도권 107.8(17.8포인트↑), 지방 107.6(5.9포인트↑)로 상승세를 지속했다.
1월 실적치에서 전망치를 뺀 시장격차 역시 서울 0.6포인트, 수도권 3.0포인트, 지방 2.4포인트 등으로 작년 10월 이후 처음으로 서울, 수도권, 지방 모두 플러스값을 띤 것으로 나타났다.
전망치 대비 실적치가 높다는 것은 실제로 시장이 회복되고 있음을 뒷받침한다.
매매가 안정세로 인해 주택구매 수요 확대가 기대되면서 분양계획지수와 분양실적지수도 오르고 재건축시장에 대한 기대감도 확산되는 분위기다.
2월 분양실적지수 전망치는 123.9(36.0포인트↑), 분양계획지수 전망치는 122.2(32.3포인트↑)로 크게 상승했고, 미분양지수 전망치는 54.3(9.7포인트↓)으로 하락했다.
재개발지수 전망치 94.1(14.7포인트↑), 재건축지수 전망치 96.5(14.0포인트↑), 공공택지지수 전망치 112.0(15.0포인트↑) 등도 오른 것으로 나타났다.
김지은 주택산업연구원 책임연구원은 "HBSI 수치 호조는 매매가가 안정세에 접어들며 실수요자 중심의 주택구매 기반이 마련되고 있으며, 분양 시장에 대한 건설업계의 기대도 높아지고 있음을 반영한 것"이라며 "기반시설이 풍부하고 대기수요가 많은 인기 지역을 중심으로 매매시장의 지역적 편차는 더욱 커지고, 전세가율이 높은 지역을 중심으로 자가구매 전환 수요 증가가 예상된다"고 말했다.
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