‘청신호’ 켜진 2014 부동산 시장…매수 시점 언제?
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작성자 짱알이 작성일14-02-10 10:03 조회23,094회 댓글130건관련링크
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취득세 영구 인하와 리모델링 수직증축 허용에 이어 다주택자 양도세 중과 폐지 등 부동산의 대못이 뽑히면서 부동산 시장 회복에 대한 기대감으로 작용하고 있는 것이다.
17개월째 상승곡선을 그리고 있는 전셋값도 수요자들의 주택 매매를 부추기고 있다. 피로도가 높아진 세입자들은 이번 기회에 내 집을 마련에 나서겠다는 계획이다.
■ 집값 바닥론 솔솔… 집값 상승 기대감 ↑
지난해 집값이 바닥을 확인하고 올해 다소 상승할 것이라는 전망에 무게감이 실리면서 주택 거래량도 늘고 있다.
한국개발연구원(KDI)과 건국대 부동산•도시연구원이 공동 운영하는 ‘부동산시장 모니터링그룹’이 최근 지역위원을 대상으로 설문조사를 진행한 결과 86명 중 51.2%가 올해 부동산 매매가격이 상승할 것으로 예상했다. 지역별로는 경기 남부 지역에 대한 상승 기대감이 85.7%로 가장 높았고, 서울 강북이 66.7%, 대구•경북 64.1%, 인천이 57.1%로 뒤를 이었다.
올해가 주택 구매의 적기라는 평가가 이어지면서 거래량도 늘었다. 서울 부동산 정보광장의 아파트 매매 거래량 조사 결과에 따르면(1월 16일 기준), 거래량은 2,165건으로 지난해 1월 1,134건보다 무려 91%가 증가했다.
■ 17개월 연속 전셋값 상승
지난해 8월 중순부터 오르기 시작한 전셋값은 17개월 째 한 주도 거르지 않고 오름세를 기록 중이다.
서울 강서, 중랑, 노원 등 일부 지역은 아파트 매매가 대비 전세가 비율(이하 전세가율)이 70%까지 올라갔으며, 일부 아파트는 전세가율 90%를 웃돌고 있다. 실제 서울 노원구 중계동 주공5단지 전용면적 76.5㎡는 집값 3억6000만원에 전세금이 3억3000만원까지 오른 상태다.
더욱이 올해 강남권을 중심으로 재개발∙재건축이 본격화되면서 서울의 전세난은 더욱 심화될 것으로 보인다. 강남권 재개발∙재건축으로 인해 총 13,000가구의 이주 수요가 발생할 것으로 예상되지만, 올해 강남권 입주 물량은 9,300여 가구에 불과하다.
한꺼번에 쏟아진 이주 수요들은 현재 전세 품귀 현상을 겪고 있는 강남권을 떠나 타 지역으로 이동이 불가피한 상황인 것이다. 전세난을 피해 이동하는 수요로 인해, 서울과 인접한 수도권까지 전세 과열 현상이 빚어질 것으로 전망되고 있다.
특히 현재 보유한 전세금 수준으로 내 집 마련이 가능하면서도, 서울 및 강남 접근성이 우수한 신도시와 택지지구를 중심으로 수요자들의 관심이 집중되고 있다.
■ 포스코건설 ‘갈매 더샵 나인힐스’ 3월 분양
포스코건설은 오는 3월, 북부간선로와 서울외곽순환로를 통해 서울 도심 접근이 쉬운 구리갈매보금자리에 ‘갈매 더샵 나인힐스’를 분양 예정이다.
‘갈매 더샵 나인힐스’는 인근 노원구와 중랑구 매매 전환 수요자들의 뜨거운 반응에 힘입어, 예정보다 1개월 정도 앞당겨 사전 마케팅을 진행 중이다. 노원구와 중랑구는 전세가 비율이 높고 입주 10년 이상 된 노후 아파트가 많아 이 참에 집을 구매하려는 수요자들이 많은 지역이다.
경기도 구리시 구리갈매보금자리 C2블록에 조성되는 ‘갈매 더샵 나인힐스’는 지하 2층~지상25층, 9개 동, 총 857가구로 조성되며, 분양 가구 전체를 전용면적 85m² 이하의 중소형 평형으로 구성한다.
부동산 전문가는 “지난해 집값이 바닥을 찍었다는 인식과 함께, 올해 집값 상승에 대한 기대감까지 높아지면 부동산 시장에 긍정적인 기류가 흐르고 있다. 전셋값 상승에 지친 세입자라면, 입지와 가격 등을 잘 따져 내 집 마련을 고려해 보는 것이 좋다”고 조언했다.
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