하반기 분양시장에서 찾는 부동산 투자방법
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작성자 짱알이 작성일13-10-24 09:59 조회24,327회 댓글126건관련링크
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부동산 경기가 10년 주기로 순환하면서 호황기에는 투기광풍에 휩쓸리기도 한다. 하지만 침체기에는 미분양으로 인해 건설사가 현금유동성 파산위기에 휘청거리고 투자자들의 깡통아파트가 속출하는 등 분양성과에 따라 희비 쌍곡선을 그려왔다.
8.28 부동산 대책 이후 아파트매매시장이 조금씩 살아나고 있다. 급매물위주로 매매되며 거래량이 늘어남에 따라 아파트 가격이 강보합을 이루면서 아파트 분양 모델하우스에 실수요자 몰려들어 분양시장도 청약열기로 뜨거워지고 있다. 경기침체로 분양시기를 잡지 못하던 건설사들도 분양을 서두르는 모습이다.
올해 4분기에 서울 중심권에서는 강서구 마곡지구 1,500세대, 강남 내곡보금자리 1,029세대, 송파구 위례신도시 2,500세대, 영등포 신길뉴타운 470세대 등 일반분양이 예정되어 있고 수도권지역에서는 수원 광교 350세대, 화성 동탄 1,300세대, 하남 미사강변지구 2,000세대, 남양주 별내지구 1,100세대, 인천 학인지구 4,000세대 등 편의시설을 갖춘 대규모 택지개발지구가 분양 예정이다. 추가로 지방에서는 대구 3,000세대, 대전 1,400세대, 울산 400세대, 세종시 900세대의 분양이 예정돼 있다.
주택경기 침체 속에서 전세난이 가속되면서 이를 억제하기 위해 정부에서는 5년간 양도세면제, 취득세 영구인하 등 각종 세제 혜택을 지원하고 있다. 이는 곧 내 집 마련의 좋은 기회가 되고 있다. 특히 6억원이하, 전용 85㎡이하의 미분양주택을 구입할 경우 기존 주택보유와 관계없이 5년간 양도소득세가 면제되고, 생애최초 주택구입자의 경우 취득세가 감면되므로 중소형 아파트의 경우 관심이 높아지고 있다.
아파트 분양성과에 따라 주변 아파트가격도 영향을 받을 수 밖에 없다. 가격 측면에서 보면 분양가격이 높은데 청약경쟁률이 높으면 인근 아파트 가격이 상승할 가능성이 높고, 분양가격이 낮은데 청약경쟁률이 낮으면 인근 아파트 가격이 하락할 가능성이 높다. 공급측면에서 보면 과잉공급이 되면 인근 아파트 가격이 낮아지고, 과소공급일 경우에는 인근 아파트 가격이 높아지게 된다.
분양 아파트의 입지, 가격, 편의시설, 교통 등의 요인을 인근 지역과 비교해 가중치를 계산하면 분양 계약률에 따라 향후 아파트시장의 가격 동향을 예측할 수 있다. 이를 근거로 내 집 마련과 아파트투자의 기준으로 하면 원하는 성과를 얻을 수 있을 것이다.
부동산 침체기의 투자에 있어 다른 대안이 없는 현실에서 지난 5년간 아파트가격이 지속적으로 하락했으며 전세난도 가중되고 있는 시점에 아파트에 대한 투자에 관심이 높을 수 밖에 없다. 올 해 노른자위 지역 아파트 분양 성과에 따라 내년 이후 아파트가격이 상승할 것인지, 아니면 지속적인 하락기조를 유지할 것인지 중요한 시점에 와있다고 할 수 있으므로 내 집 마련이나 아파트 투자계획이 있다면 가을 산책 삼아 분양중인 모델하우스를 한번 거닐어 보면 좋을 것 같다.
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