일본식 부동산 버블붕괴 올것인가?
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작성자 짱알이 작성일13-10-24 09:52 조회24,350회 댓글117건관련링크
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다시 말해 우리나라가 과거 일본처럼 부동산 버블붕괴로 장기간 집값이 하락하면서 부동산으로 돈 버는 시대가 완전히 끝났다고 생각하게 만드는 공포감이 바로 그것이다. 그렇다면 과연 우리나라 부동산시장도 일본처럼 거품이 붕괴되어 수십 년 전 집값보다 더 싼 버블 대붕괴가 올까?
필자가 생각건대, 이런 일은 일어나기 어려울 것으로 본다. 이유는 주택 공급과 수요 및 경제적 요인 등이 일본과 다르기 때문이다.
우선 일본의 인구 천 명 당 주택 수는 2008년 기준 도쿄가 약 550채, 전국 450여 채인 반면, 국내의 경우에는 2010년 기준 서울 347채, 전국 364채로 일본에 비해 크게 부족하다.
신 주택보급률 상으로도 일본은 도쿄와 전국평균이 115%에 육박하는 반면, 우리나라의 경우에는 전국적으로 100%수준이고 서울과 수도권은 각각 96%, 99%수준에 불과하여 일본과는 사뭇 다른 양상을 보이고 있다.
통상 인구 천 명 당 주택수가 440채 정도는 되어야 어느 정도 적정한 수준인데, 국내의 경우에는 일본에 비해서도 또한 절대적으로도 아직은 부족한 상황이고 적정수준까지 가려면 매년 40 만 채씩 20년간 지어야 선진국 수준의 주택수를 맞출 수 있는 상당한 기간이 소요될 것으로 보인다. 일본과 단순비교하기에 무리가 따르는 이유다.
인구구조학적 측면에서 보더라도 일본식 장기침체나 버블붕괴로 이어지기 어려운 구조로 되어있는데 가구 수의 경우에도 통계청의 추산에 의하면 우리나라 인구 정점이 2030년으로 아직 많이 남았는데, 당초 통계에서는 2020년이었다가 최근에 10년 가까이 정점이 늦어질 것으로 추산을 변경 발표한 바 있는 점도 감안해야 한다.
현재 통계청의 추산대로 계산하더라도 국내 인구정점은 무려 17년 후에나 발생할 일이고 가구 수는 무려 27년 후인 2040년이나 되어야 정점을 찍을 것으로 추산되고 있다.
인구구조학적으로 인구감소로 인한 집값 하락이 아직은 상당한 시간이 흐른 뒤에야 논의가 될 문제라고 해도 될 것이다.
또한 일본의 부동산 장기침체는 상업용부동산과 토지를 중심으로 발생하면서 LTV(담보대출비율)를 100%넘게 대출해주었고 이에 따라 반드시 거주하여야 하는 주거용부동산이 중심이 된 우리나라 부동산시장 구조보다 버블붕괴가 쉽게 나타나게 된 요인이 될 수밖에 없었다.
우리나라는 2006년 수도권 집값 폭등기에 정부에서 LTV를 강화하고 DTI(총부채상환비율)까지 이중으로 규제 및 조절하면서 과거 일본처럼 거품이 많이 끼지 않았고 대부분 정부의 과도한 규제에 의한 정책적, 심리적 침체라고 봐야 한다.
베이비부머들이 은퇴하면서 부동산을 대거 내다 팔 것이란 추측도 함정이 많아 맹신은 금물이다. 현재 국내베이비부머들의 경우 노후대비가 안된 많은 베이비부머세대들이 내 집을 팔기보다는 내 집에 편안히 거주하면서 평생 사망할 때까지 연금을 받을 수 있는 주택연금에 가입하는 숫자가 가히 기하급수적으로 늘고 있는 것도 고려되어야 한다.
아울러 일본의 경우 세계적으로 전례가 없는 경기침체를 겪은 나라인데, 가령 23년 전인 1990년의 국내총생산(GDP) 수준이 15년 후인 2005년이 돼서야 겨우 회복된 나라다. 반면 우리나라는 매년 3~4%씩 성장을 거듭하고 있는 경제적 활력을 가진 상황에서 과거 일본과 비교하기는 상당히 무리가 따른다.
인구구조변화 및 베이비부머세대들의 부동산자산 대규모 매각 등에 따른 국내 부동산시장의 일본식 버블붕괴시나리오는 오래전부터 단골메뉴로 오르내리는 주제이고 과거 일본의 상황과 견줘 의미 있는 시사점이 전혀 없는 것은 아니지만 우리나라와 일본을 단순 비교하여 일본의 전철을 그대로 답습하게 될 것이라는 주장은 설득력이 떨어지고 허무맹랑한 부동산 폭락론자들을 더욱 양산해내면서 형편과 소득에 맞는 주택을 사야할 수요에까지도 주택매수심리에 부정적인 영향을 미쳐 시장왜곡을 부채질할 우려가 높아 섣불리 확대재생산만 하는 상황은 지양해야 될 시점이 아닌가 한다.
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