공인중개사 50%, 4분기 시장회복? "글쎄"
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작성자 짱알이 작성일13-10-24 09:50 조회23,507회 댓글104건관련링크
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부동산114가 지난 10월 2일부터 18일까지 8.28대책 이후 부동산 시장의 훈풍이 계속 이어질지 공인중개사 110명 대상으로 `4분기 주택시장 전망’ 설문조사를 진행한 결과, ‘4분기 주택시장이 반짝 상승 또는 회복할 것`이라고 답변한 비율이 47.3%로 나타나 대체적으로 부정적인 시각이 높은 것으로 조사됐다.
공인중개사 10명 중 5.2명은 4분기 시장 회복 여부에 대하여 부정적인 시각을 보였다. 특히 ‘2014년에는 시장이 침체’로 이어질 것이라고 답변한 비율은 62.8%에 달했다.
`4분기 주택시장 전망`에 대한 질문에 ‘4분기 회복하고 2014년 이후에도 활황기로 접어들 것’이라는 항목에 20%, ‘4분기 반짝 상승에 그치고 2014년에 다시 어려워 질 것’이라고 답변한 비율은 27.3%로 저조했다.
‘4분기에도 별다른 회복세를 보이지 못하고 2014년에도 장기침체할 것`이라는 부정적인 답변이 35.5%, ‘4분기 별다른 회복세를 보이지 못하고 2014년 이후에 회복할 것`이라고 답변한 비율은 17.3%로 4분기 회복에 대해 부정적인 응답 비율이 52.8%를 나타냈다.
`회복세가 보인다면 요인이 무엇일까`라는 질문에 ‘매매전환 수요 확산’이 40.4%, ‘취득세, 양도세 감면 혜택 막달효과’라고 답변한 비율이 36.5%로 나타났다.
‘주택가격 바닥 인식에 따른 매수세 증가’ 항목은 13.5%, ‘저금리 모기지 등 정부의 주택자금 지원 확대’는 9.6%라고 각각 답했다.
`4분기 주택시장이 살아나지 못할 것이라고 답변한 이유`를 묻는 질문에 ‘부동산 경기와 대외 경제 회복에 대한 불확실성’이 39.7%, ‘정부의 핵심법안에 대한 입법지연’이 39.7%로 나타났다.
또한 나머지 항목인 ‘전세선호 현상 심화로 매매전환 부진’이 8.6%, ‘가계부채’ 5.2%, ‘소득대비 주택가격이 여전히 높다는 수요자들의 인식’ 3.4%, ‘매도-매수 희망가격 격차’ 3.4%라고 각각 답변했다.
`주택시장 정상화를 위해 가장 필요한 부동산 정책은 무엇`이냐는 질문에 ‘취득세 영구 인하’가 36.4%, ‘다주택자양도세 중과폐지’가 32.7%로 세금규제 완화에 대한 비율이 높았다.
그 외 항목에선 ‘저금리 모기지 제도 확대’(8.2%), ‘양도세5년 한시 감면 연장’ (6.4%), ‘생애최초주택구입자 취득세 면제연장’(4.5%), ‘분양가상한제 폐지’(0.9%)는 낮은 응답비율을 보였다.
`현재 시점에서 어떤 아파트를 구입하는 것이 가장 유리한가`라는 질문에는 ‘기존아파트’가 58.2%로 가장 높았으며, `신규분양 아파트(21.9%)’ , ‘미분양 아파트(17.3%)’ 순으로 나타났다. 반면 `분양권`은 3.6%에 불과했다.
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