고수익 올리는 분양 ‘상가’ 투자 노하우
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말이 고정적인 월세 받는 상가이지 사실 투자 위험성이 가장 큰 종목이다. 고정적인 월세수익을 얻는다는 말에 현혹돼 평생 모은 돈과 은행돈을 합쳐 상가를 분양 받았다가 임차인을 찾지 못해 수년 째 관리비만 내고 있는 상가투자자들이 의외로 많다. 목 좋은 대형 상가 내 소형 점포를 2~3억 원대 금액에 분양 받았다가 장사가 수년째 안 돼 결국에는 경매 처분돼 헐값에 팔려 나가는 상가들이 수두룩한 현실이다.
분양 상가, 신중할수록 유리
상가는 물론 목 좋은 곳에 위치해 있어 분양 받은 후 주변 상권이 활성화된 다음에는 고정적인 월세수익과 함께 프리미엄까지 챙길 수 있는 대표적인 수익형 부동산이다. 소형 상가의 경우 지역상권의 변화에 따라 짭짤한 임대수익을 챙기기도 한다. 그러나 요즘 분양하는 상가는 대체로 분양가가 비싸고 영업상태가 좋지 않아 수익률이 크게 떨어진 상태다.
불리한 영업환경이 가장 큰 이유다. 지역경제의 위축에 따른 자영업 붕괴와 대형 할인점 출점으로 중소형 상가 영업력이 크게 떨어져 있다. 앞으로도 영업환경 개선은 쉽지 않아 악재가 도사리고 있다. 고분양가 탓에 임차인 맞추기가 쉽지 않아 빈 상가로 남아있는 경우가 허다하다. 임대수익도 3~4%대에 불과하다. 따라서 안정적인 수익이 보장되는 상가를 고르는 게 최대 관건이다.
상가에 투자할 때는 분양방식의 장단점을 먼저 검토해야 한다. 투자방식에는 기존 상가를 매입하는 방법과 일정 기간 임대료를 내고 상가를 빌리는 임대분양과 토지와 건물이 계약자 앞으로 소유권이 넘어오는 등기분양으로 나뉜다. 기존상가 매입은 이미 영업성을 검증받은 상태여서 프리미엄이 높지 않다면 안전한 투자대상이다.
상가 분양방법에는 공개경쟁입찰, 내정가 공개추첨, 수의계약이 있다. 영업환경이 좋은 상가일수록 공개입찰이 많은 데 높은 가격을 써내는 입찰자가 최종 낙찰된다. 아파트 단지 내 상가는 공개경쟁입찰 방식이 많고, 근린상가나 도심테마상가 등은 수의계약 방식으로 분양한다.
공개경쟁입찰의 경우 입찰현장의 과열 분위기에 휩쓸려 터무니없는 가격을 써내는 초보 투자자가 많다. 이러한 경우 높은 분양가 때문에 후회하는 수가 많으므로 적정한 분양가인지 미리 주변 중개업소에 들러 예정가에 대해 자문을 구하는 것이 바람직하다. 선착순 수의계약은 상권형성이 불리한 입지가 많으므로 상권 특성, 입지에 맞게 적정한 분양가에 분양받아야 한다.
LH 분양 단지 상가 안전
신규 상가 분양시장의 경우 인천 송도 등 수도권 상권과 강남 보금자리, 위례신도시 등 서울 택지지구 상가에 대한 관심이 높다. 이들 지역은 주거시설의 입주 속도에 따라 상권 형성이 단축되는 이점으로 투자 가치가 높을 것으로 보인다. 또 LH가 분양하는 단지 내 상가의 인기도도 꾸준할 전망이다. LH 상가는 공급물량의 안정성과 함께 1억 원 안팎의 소액으로도 투자할 수 있고 주민편익 위주의 필수업종 위주로 구성돼 공실의 위험성도 낮아 안전성이 뛰어나다.
분양상가를 고를 때는 아파트 단지 내 상가와 할인 미분양, 택지개발지구 내 근린상가로 한정해 투자하는 것이 안전하다. 1000세대가 넘는 대단지 아파트 상가도 요즘 입주율 하락과 영업력 저조로 고전을 면치 못하고 있다. 아파트상가는 단지 중앙에 위치하고 일정한 배후 유동인구를 끌어들일 수 있는 주출입구 1층 상가를 고르는 것이 안전하다.
임대목적으로 상가를 매입하려면 택지지구 내 주공상가 등 가격이 비싸도 수익이 검증된 상가에 한정적으로 투자하는 것이 좋다. 지역 대표상가거나 관공서 학교 주거밀집지 등 유동인구가 많은 곳이라야 수요가 충분하다. 또 상권 활성화가 기대되고 상업용지 규모가 적은 택지지구 내 근린상가나 할인가격으로 분양하는 미분양상가를 골라야 한다. 덩치가 큰 테마상가, 도심의 집적 및 파생상가, 수요가 한정적인 주상복합 상가는 특별한 호재가 없다면 투자를 자제해야 한다.
분양가의 적정성도 따져봐야 한다. 아무리 유동인구가 많고 상권이 양호해도 주변시세보다 높은 가격에 분양받을 경우 수익성을 맞추기 어렵다. 최근 매물로 나온 서울 송파구의 모 단지 내 상가는 최초 분양가보다 3.3㎡당 2000만원이나 가격이 하락한 사례도 있다. 거품이 낀 상가는 수익 내기에 한계가 있고 환금성이 결여돼 애물단지로 변할 가능성이 크다.
상가 분양가의 적정성을 따질 때는 유사지역 내 비슷한 조건의 상가를 기준해 임대료 수준과 분양가를 따져 보고 가격이 현저히 높게 형성되어 있다면 거품일 가능성이 크다. 또 최근 거래된 타 상가 규모와 면적을 비교하여 적정 분양가를 판단하는 기준으로 삼아야 한다. 분양가에 거품이 끼어있다면 일정기간이 개발이 마무리되는 때에 대출을 많이 낀 급매물을 고르는 것도 투자요령이다.
상가투자의 핵심은 정확한 상권분석이다. 입지와 상권을 제대로 분석해 보려면 우선 분양하는 상가 주변의 오래된 상가영업자로부터 자문을 받는 것이 중요하다. 인근 상인은 그 지역 상가들의 영업 상태를 꿰뚫고 있는 사람이다. 수년째 장사를 하면서 지역 일대의 상권변화와 향후 전망에 대해서는 전문가 수준이다. 이들 영업자들의 평가가 긍정적이거나 영업자들이 실제 직접 분양받은 상가라면 실패 가능성을 줄일 수 있다.
최근 상가 임대수익률이 하락추세이다. 공급과다와 고분양가, 영업력 저조 등을 고려해 보수적인 투자자세를 견지해야 한다. 투자를 고려할 때는 기본 배후수요와 희소가치, 분양가의 적정성, 할인점과의 거리 등을 꼼꼼하게 따져 신중하게 투자하는 게 수익성 높은 상가를 고르는 비결이다.
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